Top Twitter charts I have looked at over the past week. Enjoy!
Chart 1: Australia Consumer Sentiment
The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Index of Consumer Sentiment fell 5.5% to 92.8 in October from 98.2 in September. This is the lowest level of the Index since July 2015.
Chart 2: Speculators betting on further AUD weakness
Real money accounts on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) extended A$ net shorts to record -54.8k contracts (from -45.8k) in week to 1st October. Leveraged funds however trimmed net shorts to -10.7k so combined stance of -65.6k (-A$6.6bn) is short of August 2019 and October 2018 extremes.
Chart 3: Australia’s mortgage lending rebound
August lending data saw a further uplift in housing lending growth. The chart below shows the correlation between lending growth and auction clearance rates, monthly home price growth, & money supply growth.
Chart 4: Australia’s construction industry remains weak
The Australian Construction Index registered 42.6 points in September. This was down by 2.0 points from the previous month, indicating that the construction industry on aggregate declined more sharply. Apartment building was again the weakest performing area of activity, declining for an 18th consecutive month, and at an accelerated rate. Subdued conditions continued in commercial construction while engineering construction declined more sharply in line with reports of insufficient new work to replace completed projects.
Chart 5: Low Vol Obsession
As the S&P 500 Index began October with its third week of losses, utilities ETFs took in $726 million, the most of any industry, data compiled by Bloomberg through Oct. 3 show. Investors had already piled into defensive funds in the three months ended September, with ETFs of real-estate and consumer-staples companies adding more than any other equity sectors, while those focused on avoiding volatile stocks saw record inflows.
Chart 6: Industrial cycle bottom?
Global Metal Users PMIs rose again in September 2019, with copper users seeing the first improvement in operating conditions for 10 months amid a slight rebound in Asian industries.
Chart 7: Japan Foreign Machine Tool Orders
However, Japan foreign machine tool orders -41% y/y in September 2019 – suggesting that global industrial demand still remains weak.
Chart 8: Weak outlook for US industrial production growth
The ISM manufacturing index came in at 47.8 in September, down from 49.1 in August. Consensus expectations were for a reading at 50.0. The forward-looking new orders index – remained at 47.3 but the employment index fell to 46.3 – the lowest reading since January 2016. The outlook industrial production growth in the US remains weak given the historically lead from the ISM Manufacturing Index.
